MOSKALENKO S.O. MODERN CHANGES IN THE FREQUENCY AND RECURRENCE PERIODS OF SNOW-RAIN FLOODS ON RIVERS IN THE TISZA RIVER BASIN
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17721/2306-5680.2025.3.4
Hydrology, Hydrochemistry and Hydroecology. 2025. № 3(77)
Publication language: Ukrainian
Authors:
Moskalenko S. O., Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv
The article is devoted to the study of modern changes in the frequency and recurrence periods of snow-rain floods of a certain magnitude on rivers in the Tisza River basin (within Ukraine). Flood frequency statistics in the Tisza River basin were based on the use of historical data on maximum discharges for the observation period from 1948 to 2019 (i.e., series with a duration of 72 years). In this case, data from the following the following gauging stations were used: Tisza River – Rakhiv city (catchment area F = 1070 km2); Rika River – Mizhhirya village (F = 550 km2); Latorytsia River – Mukachevе city (1360 km2). Due to the peculiarities of physical and geographical conditions (mountainous terrain, significant amounts of precipitation, etc.), floods on rivers in the Tisza River basin are formed several times during the year (both in the warm and cold periods of the year). Therefore, to comply with the conditions of statistical independence and homogeneity of the initial information, partial duration series of maximum average daily water flows were formed separately for snow-rain floods. Unlike the series of annual flood maxima, which include only one highest discharge each year, the partial duration series contain the maxima of all floods exceeding a certain threshold value, which corresponds to the smallest value from the series of annual maximum annual discharges. To assess modern changes in the frequency and recurrence of snow-rain floods of a certain magnitude, the series of partial duration maxima for two equal periods (36 years) were considered – 1948-1983 and 1984-2019. To determine the periods (intervals) of recurrence of floods of a certain magnitude, a formula was used that is the inverse of the Weibull formula, which is designed to calculate the probabilities of exceeding the members of the series. Based on this, combined graphs of the recurrence periods of the maxima of snow-rain floods for the two studied periods were constructed, which made it possible to analyze changes in the frequency and recurrence periods of snow-rain floods of a certain magnitude on rivers in the Tisza River basin that occurred in the modern period. The conducted research is practically focused on the hydrological support of various industries, since the results obtained provide information about the probabilistic potential of the occurrence of rain and snow-rain floods of a certain magnitude on the rivers within the studied territory.
Key words: Tisza River basin within Ukraine; snow-rain floods; maximum water discharge; series of partial duration; recurrence periods.
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HOW TO CITE
Moskalenko, S. O. (2025). Modern changes in the frequency and recurrence periods of snow-rain floods on rivers in the Tisza River Basin. Hidrolohiia, hidrokhimiia i hidroekolohiia [Hydrology, Hydrochemistry and Hydroecology], 3(77), 50-57 (in Ukrainian, abstr. in English). https://doi.org/10.17721/2306-5680.2025.3.4