ZABOLOTSKA T.M., SHPYG V.M., TSILA A.YU. CIRCULATION INDEXES AND THE CLOUD COVER DURING OF THE GLOBAL WARMING PERIOD
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17721/2306-5680.2021.1.8
Hydrology, Hydrochemistry and Hydroecology. 2021. № 1 (59)
Publication language: Ukrainian
Authors:
Zabolotska T.M., Ukrainian hydrometeorological institute
Shpyg V.M., Ukrainian hydrometeorological institute
Tsila A.Yu., Ukrainian hydrometeorological institute; Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv
The investigations of connection between the different meteorological processes, for example, the circulation indexes with the quantity of the total and lower cloudiness during 1961-2018 over Ukraine were made. The spatial distributions of the total and lower cloudiness were received for 73 years (1946-2018) at first. The quantity of cloudiness is diminished from west to east and with north to south. The declinations of the annual data of total and lower cloudiness from the historical (1961-1990) and the present (1981-2010) norms were calculated. The great variations were characterized for the lower cloudiness. The linear trends showed that the diminish of the lower cloudiness was on 90 % of the all territory, this changes were important on 70 % of the territory. The trends of the monthly variations were showed on the diminish of the lower cloudiness in during all year only on north, on other territory was the increasing in the separate months, frequently in January and September. The variations of the total cloudiness were insignificant, the increase or decrease were nearly in equal parts. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), East-Atlantic Oscillation (EA), Scandinavian Oscillation (SCAND), Greenlandic Oscillation (GBI) and South Oscillation (El-Niño) were used for the investigation of relationship between the circulation indexes and cloud cover. It was shown that different circulation indexes have influence on climate of Northern Hemisphere and on Ukraine too. The relation with each other and their variations in period of global warming were showed. The quantity estimation of the total and lower cloudiness variations was made by the frequencies of clear, semi clear and overcast sky in the successive decades and by the relative variations of frequencies between decades (1961-1970 and 1971-1980; 1971-1980 and 1981-1990; 1981-1990 and 1991-2000; 1991-2000 and 2001-2010; 2001-2010 and 2011-2018). The parallel analyze of the variations of circulation was estimated in that time. The difference between the circulating processes during 1961-1970 and 1971-1980 contributed to a decrease in the relative frequency of the clear sky (on 5.4%) and a slight increase of the overcast sky (on 1.6%) by total cloud cover and a slight increase of the clear sky (on 0.8 %) and a decrease of the overcast sky (on 5.2%) by lower cloudiness. At the same time, the relative frequency of the semi-clear sky by lower cloudiness almost in three times increased in comparison to total cloudiness (on 10.2% and 3.8%, respectively). In the third decade of 1981-1990 the relative frequency of clear sky by lower cloudiness increased on 5.1% and did not change by total cloudiness (0%). During this decade the relative frequency of overcast sky decreased the most in the whole period under study: by total cloudiness on 6.4% and by lower cloudiness on 13.3%. At the same time, the relative frequency of semi-clear sky had largest increasing: on 22.4% for total cloudiness and 13% for lower cloudiness. Then, during 1991-2000, the frequency of clear sky decreased significantly both for total cloudiness (on 6.5%) and for lower cloudiness (on 3.1%). The frequency of overcast sky decreased also, but less significantly (on 1.3% and 2.3%, respectively), thereby the number of clouds of the middle and upper levels increased. From 2001 to 2010, the frequency of clear sky by total cloudiness and by lower cloudiness continued to decrease (on 5.3 and 3.2%, respectively), but the frequency of overcast sky increased (on 0.9 and 1.7%, respectively), thereby the number of clouds for all levels increased. During 2011-2018 the frequency of clear sky by total cloudiness increased (on 0.9%) and by lower cloudiness did not change. The frequency of overcast sky decreased on 3.6% (by total cloudiness) and on 0.7% (by lower cloudiness). The variations of the relative frequencies of the different state sky between the successive decades are agreed with the changes of the circulation indexes.
Keywords: circulation indexes, state of sky for total and lower cloudiness, main cloud forms, region, frequency.
References:
1. Bardin M.Yu, Polonsky A.B. Severoatlanticheskoe kolebanie i sinopticheskaya izmenchivost v Evropejsko-Atlanticheskom regione v zimnij period [North Atlantic Oscillation and synoptic variability in the Euro-Atlantic region in winter] // Izvestia RAN. Physics of the atmosphere and ocean. 2005. Vol. 41. No 2. P.3-13.
2. Vangengeim G.Ya. Opyt primeneniya sinopticheskikh metodov k izucheniyu i kharakteristike klimata [Experience in applying synoptic methods to the study and characterization of climate]. Moscow: GUGMS publishing house,1935. 112 p.
3. Zhadin E.A., Zyulyaeva Yu.A., Volodin Yu.M. Svyazi mezhgodovykh variaczij stratosfernykh poteplenij, czirkulyaczii troposfery i temperatury poverkhnosti okeanov Severnogo polushariya [Relationships between interannual variations in stratospheric warming, tropospheric circulation, and ocean surface temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere] // Izvestia RAN. Physics of the atmosphere and ocean. 2008. Vol. 44. No 5. P. 641-653.
4. Zabolotska T.M., Shpyg V.M. Kilkisni zminy lhmarnosti iak indykator period globalnogo poteplinnia [Quantitative changes of cloud cover as indicator of global warming period] // Nauk. pratsi UkrNDGMI. 2015. Issue 267. P. 23-27.
5. Zabolotska T.M., Tsila A.Yu. Klimatychni zminy atmosfernogo tysku na terytorii Ukrainy [Сlimate differences of atmospheric pressure on territory Ukraine] // Hidrolohiiа, hidrokhimiiа i hidroekolohiiа. 2019. Vol. 2. No 53. P. 66-74.
6. Zabolotska T.M., Shpyg V.M., Tsila A.Yu. Zminy pokaznykiv khmarnogo pokryvu nad terytorieiu Ukrainy vprodovzh periodu globalnogo poteplinnia [The changes of cloud cover characteristics over territory of Ukraine during of the global warming] // Hidrolohiiа, hidrokhimiiа i hidroekolohiiа. 2019. Vol. 4. No 55. P. 121-130.
7. Meleshko V.P., Kattsov V.M., Mirvis V.M., Govorkova V.A., Pavlova T.V. Klimat Rossii v XXI veke. Chast 1. Novye svidetelstva antropogennogo izmeneniya klimata i sovremennye vozmozhnosti ego rascheta [Climate of Russia in the 21st Century. Part 1. New Evidence of Anthropogenic Climate Change and the State of the Art of its Simulation] // Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya. 2008. No 6. P. 5-19.
8. Mokhov I.I., Semenov V.A. Pogodno-klimaticheskie anomalii v rossijskikh regionakh i ikh sviaz s globalnymi izmeneniyami klimata [Weather and Climate Anomalies in Russian Regions Related to Global Climate Change] // Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya. 2016. No 2. P. 16-28.
9. Murav’ev A.V., Kulikova I.A., Kruglova E.N. Opredelenie ekstremalnykh kharakteristik atmosfernoj czirkulyaczii po dannym reanaliza i gidrodinamicheskogo modelirovaniya [Distribution of extreme characteristics of atmospheric circulation from reanalysis data and hydrodynamic modeling] // Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya. 2009. No 7. P. 33-47.
10. Nesterov E.S. O fazakh severoatlanticheskogo kolebaniya [The phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation] // Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya. 2003. No 1. P. 64-74.
11. Nesterov E.S. O vliyanii temperatury vody i potokov tepla na poverkhnosti okeana v Severnoj Atlantike na czirkulyacziyu atmosfery [On the influence of water temperature and heat fluxes at the North Atlantic Sea surface on the atmospheric circulatio] // Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya. 2009. No 1. P. 39-46.
12. Nesterov E.S. O vostochno-atlanticheskom kolebanii czirkulyaczii atmosfery [East-Atlantic Oscillation of the Atmospheric Circulation] // Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya. 2009. No 12. P. 33-40.
13. Popova V.V., Shmakin A.B. Vliyanie severoatlanticheskogo kolebaniya na mnogoletnij gidrotermicheskij rezhim Severnoj Evrazii. I. Statisticheskij analiz dannykh nablyudenij [Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on multiyear hydrological and thermal regime of Northern Eurasia. I. Statistical analysis of Observational Data] // Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya. 2003. No 5. P. 62-74.
14. Popova V.V., Shmakin A.B. Czirkulyaczionnye mekhanizmy krupnomasshtabnykh anomalij temperatury v Severnoj Evrazii v koncze XX stoletiya [Circulation mechanisms of large-scale winter air temperature anomalies in Northern Eurasia at the end of the 20th Century] // Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya. 2006. No 12. P. 16-25.
15. Popova V.V., Shmakin A.B. Regionalnaya struktura kolebanij temperatury prizemnogo vozdukha v Severnoj Evrazii vo vtoroj polovine XX – nachale XXI vekov [Regional structure of surface air temperature fluctuations in Northern Eurasia in the second half of the XX – early XXI centuries] Izvestia RAN. Physics of the atmosphere and ocean. 2010. Vol. 46. No 2. P. 161-175.
16. Semenov E.K., Sokolikhina E.V., Sokolikhina N.N. Atmosfernaya czirkulyacziya v nizkikh shirotakh v periody teplykh i kholodnykh faz yavleniya El-Nino – Yuzhnoe kolebanie [Atmospheric circulation at Low Latitudes in Periods of Warm and Cold Phases of the El-Nino – Southern Oscillation] // Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya. 2006. No 8. P. 5-18.
17. Sidorenkov N.S., Orlov I.A. Atmosfernye czirkulyaczionnye epokhi i izmeneniya klimata [Atmospheric circulation epochs and climate changes] // Meteorologiya i gidrologiya. 2008. No 9. P. 22-29.
18. Stepanov V.N. O veroyatnoj prichine izmeneniya kharakteristik El-Nino v 2000-e gody [A Plausible Reason for Changes in El Nino Parameters in the 2000s] Meteorologiya i gidrologiya. 2016. No 11. P. 22-40.
19. Tishchenko V.A., Khan V.M., Vil’fand R.M., Roget E. Issledovanie razvitiya atmosfernykh proczessov blokirovaniya i kvazistaczionirovaniya anticziklonov v Atlantiko-Evropejskom sektore [Studying the development of atmospheric processes associated with blocking and quasistationary anticyclones in the Atlantic European sector] // Meteorologiya i gidrologiya. 2013. No 7. P. 15-30.
20. Kharyutkina E.V., Loginov S.V., Martynova Yu.V. Izmenchivost atmosfernoj czirkulyaczii v usloviyakh proiskhodyashhikh klimaticheskikh izmenenij v Zapadnoj Sibiri v koncze XX v. i nachale XXI v. [Variability of atmospheric circulation under the climate change in West Siberia in the late 20th – early 21st centuries] // Meteorologiya i gidrologiya. 2016. № 6. С. 82-86.
21. Khlebnikova E.I., Sall I.A. Osobennosti klimaticheskikh izmenenij oblachnogo pokrova nad territoriej Rossii [Peculiarities of climatic changes in cloud cover over the Russian Federation] // Meteorologiya i gidrologiya. 2009. No 7. P. 5-13.
22. Tsila A.Yu. Kilkisni zminy khmarnogo pokryvu nad terytorieiu Ukrainy vprodovzh intensyfikatsii globalnogo poteplinnia [Quantitative changes in cloud cover over the territory of Ukraine during the intensification of global warming] // Conference Proceedings of the XVIII International Conference of Students, Postgraduates and Young Scientists. Kyiv: Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, 2020. P 51-54.
23. Barnston A.G., Livezey R.E. Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns // Mon. Wea. Rev. 1987. Vol. 115. No. 6. P. 1083-1126.
24. Booth E.L.J., Byrne J.M., Johnson D.L. Climatic changes in western North America, 1950 – 2005 // International journal of climatology. 2012. Vol. 32. Issue 15. P. 2283-2300.
25. Chernokulsky A., Esau I. Cloud cover and cloud types in the Eurasian Arctic in 1936-2012 // International Journal of Climatology. 2019. Vol. 39. Issue 15. P. 5771-5790.
26. Fernàndez-Gonzàlez S., del Rìo S., Castro A., Penas A., Fernàndez-Paga M., Calvo A.I., Fraile R. Connection between NAO, weather types and precipitation in Leon, Spain (1948-2008) // International journal of climatology. 2012. Vol. 32. Issue 14. P. 2181-2196.
27. Franzke C. and Feldstein S.B. The continium and dynamics of Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns // J. Atmos. Sci. 2005. Vol. 62. No. 9. P. 3250-3267.
28. Gill-Alana L.A., Sauci L. US temperatures: Time trends and persistence // International Journal of Climatology. 2019. Vol. 39. Issue 13. P. 5091-5103.
29. Gonzalez-Hidalgo J.C., Peña-Angulo D., Brunetti M., Cortesi N. MOTEDAS: a new monthly temperature database for mainland Spain in the trend in temperature (1951-2010) // International Journal of Climatology. 2015. Vol .35. Issue 15. P. 4444-4463.
30. Hanna E., Cropper T.E., Jones P.D., Scaife A.A., Allan R. Recent seasonal asymmetric changes in the NAO (a marked summer decline and increased winter variability) and associated changes in the AO and Greenland Blocking index // International Journal of Climatology. 2015. Vol. 35. Issue 9. P. 2540-2554.
31. Hanna E., Cropper T., Hall R., Cappelen J. Greenland blocking index 1851-2015: a regional climate change signal // International Journal of Climatology. 2016. Vol. 36. Issue 15. P. 4847-4861.
32. Hanna E., Hall R.J., Cropper T.E., Ballinger T.J., Wake L., Mote T., Cappelen J. Greenland blocking index daily series 1851-2015: Analysis changes in extremes and links with North Atlantic and UK climate variability and change // International Journal of Climatology. 2018. Vol. 38. Issue 9. P. 3546-3564.
33. Liu Y., He Sh., Li F., Wang H., Zhu Y. Interdecadal change between the Arctic Oscillation and East Asian climate during 1900-2015 // International Journal of Climatology. 2017. Vol. 37. Issue 14. P. 4791-4802.
34. Liu X., Xu Z., Peng D., Wu C. Influences of the North Atlantic Oscillation on extreme temperature during the cold period in China // International Journal of Climatology. 2019. Vol. 39. Issue 1. P. 43-49.
35. Mailier P.J., Stephenson D.B., Ferro C.A.T. and Hodges K.I. Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones // Mon. Wea. Rev. 2006. Vol. 134. No. 8. P. 2224-2240.
36. Marshall J., Kushnir Y., Battisti D., Chang P., Czaja A., Dickson R., Ybrrell R., McCartney M., Saravanan R., Visbeck M. North Atlantic climate variability: phenomena, impacts and mechanisms // International Journal of Climatology. 2001. Vol. 21. Issue 15. P. 1863-1898.
37. Robson J., Cutton R.T., Archibald A., Cooper F., Christensen M., Gray L.J., Holliday N.P., Macintosh C., McMillan M., Moat B., Russo M. et al. Recent multivariate changes in the North Atlantic climate systems, with focus on 2005-2016 // International Journal of Climatology. 2018. Vol. 38. Issue 14. P. 5050-5076.
38. Rossow W.B., Duenas E.N. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) web site // Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2004. No 85. P. 167-172.
39. Shabbar A., Huang J., Higuchi K. The relationship between the wintertime north Atlantic oscillation and blocking episodes in the north Atlantic // International Journal of Climatology. 2001. Vol. 21. Issue 3. P. 355-369.
40. Warren S.G., Eastman R.M., Hahn C.J. A survey of Changes in Cloud Cover and Cloud Types over Land from Surface Observations, 1971-96 // Climate. 2007. No 20. P. 717-738.
41. Zhang Ch., Shuanglin L, Feifei L., Huang Z. The global warming hiatus has faded away: An analysis of 2014-2016 global surface temperatures // International Journal of Climatology. 2019. Vol. 39. Issue 12. P. 4853-4868.
42. Zubiaurre I. and Calvo N. The El-Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Modoki signal in the stratosphere. Geophys. Res. 2012. Vol. 117. D04104; doi: 10.1029/2011.JDO16690.
HOW TO CITE
Zabolotska, T.M., Shpyg, V.M., TsilaЄ A.Yu. (2021). Circulation indexes and the cloud cover during of the global warming period. Hidrolohiia, hidrokhimiia i hidroekolohiia [Hydrology, Hydrochemistry and Hydroecology], 1(59), 76-91 (in Ukrainian, abstr. in English). https://doi.org/10.17721/2306-5680.2021.1.8.