MOSKALENKO S. O., MYKYTCHENKO S. M. TRANSFORMATION OF THE WATER BALANCE OF THE PSEL RIVER BASIN UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17721/2306-5680.2026.1.3
Hydrology, Hydrochemistry and Hydroecology. 2026. № 1 (79)
Publication language: Ukrainian
Authors:
Moskalenko S. O., Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv
Mykytchenko S. M., Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv
Climate change has a significant and multifaceted impact on the structure of the water balance of river basins, changing key components such as precipitation, evaporation and water runoff. The article is devoted to the study and identification of the impact of climate change on the quantitative relationships between water inflow and outflow within the Psel River basin. For this purpose, a set of methods was used, which include water balance methods, mathematical statistics, and comparative analysis. The water balance (atmospheric precipitation P, mm = total evaporation E, mm + water runoff R, mm) was calculated for two periods – the base climatic (1961-1990) and the modern (1991-2019). Based on the analysis of the structural components of the water balance of the Psel River basin, modern changes (compared to the period of the climatic norm) can be characterized as a tendency towards aridity. The decrease in the amount of atmospheric precipitation in the basin by approximately 11.5 mm (income part) became a factor that directly affected the filling of the river network. As a result of the increase in air temperature in the basin under modern climatic conditions compared to the period of the climatic norm, the total evaporation increased by approximately 6.0 mm (expenditure part). The combination of less precipitation and greater evaporation led to a significant decrease in the Psel river runoff – by ≈17.5 mm. The analysis of the transformation of the water balance of the Psel river basin clearly illustrates the classical model of the impact of global climate change on the hydrological regime of regional water systems. The situation in the Psel river basin is a striking example of how relatively small quantitative changes in meteorological parameters lead to a significant transformation of the water content of rivers. The trends in changes in the components of the water balance described in the study require a revision of water use strategies in the region, providing a basis for water resources management, planning the use of natural waters in economic activities, and environmental safety.
Keywords: Psel River; water balance; basic climatic period; modern changes in climatic conditions; transformation of water balance components.
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HOW TO CITE
Moskalenko, S. O., Mykytchenko, S. M. (2026). Transformation of the water balance of the Psel River basin under climate change. Hidrolohiia, hidrokhimiia i hidroekolohiia [Hydrology, Hydrochemistry and Hydroecology], 1(79), 31-41 (in Ukrainian, abstr. in English). https://doi.org/10.17721/2306-5680.2026.1.3