SIVAIEV D., SHAKIRZANOVA ZH. FEATURES OF MAXIMUM SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL RUNOFF FORMATION IN THE RIVERS OF THE UKRAINIAN POLISSYA UNDER CONDITIONS OF SEASONAL REDISTRIBUTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17721/2306-5680.2025.3.3
Hydrology, Hydrochemistry and Hydroecology. 2025. № 3(77)
Publication language: Ukrainian
Authors:
Sivaiev D., Odesa I.I. Mechnikov National UniversityShakirzanova Zh., Odesa I.I. Mechnikov National University
The study analyzes the findings of both international and Ukrainian researchers concerning the impact of climate change on river hydrological regimes. Particular attention is given to current trends in the seasonal redistribution of water resources, including the reduction of the spring runoff share, the shift in its timing, and the increasing frequency of snowmelt-rain floods during the winter period. At the same time, the probability of extreme flooding events remains significant, which necessitates a detailed analysis of the formation of maximum river discharge in the Ukrainian Polissia under conditions of seasonal water redistribution and a changing climate.
In the intra-annual distribution of river runoff in the Ukrainian Polissia over the past decades, a decrease in the share of snowmelt contribution and an increase in groundwater contribution have been observed. Consequently, there has been a reduction in runoff volumes during the spring period and an increase during the summer-autumn and winter low-flow periods. A clear trend toward a higher frequency of thaws has developed, resulting in more frequent winter floods and, therefore, an increased proportion of runoff during the cold season. Under these conditions, the formation of maximum snowmelt-rain runoff in the winter-spring period has become typical for rivers, in contrast to the previously dominant phase of their hydrological regime – the spring high-water period.
The study examines the impact of climate change on the maximum snowmelt-rain flood runoff of rivers in the Ukrainian Polissia, focusing on the transformation of spring floods and the occurrence of snow droughts – phenomena associated with a deficit of snow water storage during winter, which subsequently lead to the development of spring-summer hydrological droughts. At the same time, under conditions of climate warming, the probability of intensive snowmelt-rain or rainfall floods remains high, particularly when these events occur sequentially during the winter-spring period, as opposed to the traditionally dominant spring high-water season of rivers.
The consideration of climate change in hydrological computation and forecasting methods is proposed to be implemented through the application of regional adjustment coefficients to the long-term mean runoff values. These coefficients are derived from the comparison of present-day meteorological data with climate model projections or from the assessment of changes in river flow phases. Such an approach allows accounting for variations in both the design and projected maximum and annual river discharge in the future, which is essential for the socio-economic development of society.
The identified current patterns and hydro-meteorological factors influencing the formation of maximum snowmelt-rain runoff in the rivers of the Ukrainian Polissia will be applied to improve mathematical methods of hydrological computations and forecasts under climate change conditions and seasonal redistribution of river runoff.
Keywords: seasonal redistribution of runoff; maximum snowmelt–rain runoff; mixed-origin floods.
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HOW TO CITE
Sivaiev, D., Shakirzanova, Zh. (2025). Features of maximum snowmelt and rainfall runoff formation in the rivers of the Ukrainian Polissya under conditions of seasonal redistribution and climate change. Hidrolohiia, hidrokhimiia i hidroekolohiia [Hydrology, Hydrochemistry and Hydroecology], 3(77), 31-50 (in Ukrainian, abstr. in English). https://doi.org/10.17721/2306-5680.2025.3.3